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As you level up and earn medals, your spells will become stronger and gain new properties.Q:
Probability of a certain event given the event of another event
I was having a math exam today and at the end of it we had to explain how to solve problems when both events are random (they don’t necessarily have to occur simultaneously).
Consider the following example:
The probability of an athlete being selected in the U.S. Olympics is.45. If such an athlete’s name is announced, what is the probability that that athlete is from the Men’s 100m competition?
The answer given to us was
$(.45)(.95)(.45)=(.15625)$
Is this the right way to go about this?
A:
Your explanation was almost correct. You just missed an important mathematical rule – multiply probability terms instead of adding them (sometimes, at least).
As for your specific example, your explanation is correct.
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What’s new in Cynthia: Hidden In The Moonshadow:
Travelling on horseback in a far flung land, we find ourselves at a banquet: a rich food, full of flavour, of gourmandised food for the palate, steeped in both pleasure and history, and the spread of its extended feast is known across the land. It is a celebration of food as part of civilisation and myth, of the self and the memory. The people here have left this banquet. The food is served indifferently: the warriors tuck back into it, as if counting all the pleasures to be had in the years to come. They sit with their weapons at the ready. Their expressions are distant and unsmiling, and have perhaps even lost their smile. Most do not even know for whom they are waiting. Perhaps it is a just war, a war to guarantee the peace of the foreign people. As for those who are not in need of an excuse to go to war, then they watch silently the people from the west.
In the year that passes, it turns out that the land they came to in search of peace is in fact owned by the enemy. Desperate, they travel on the neighbouring lands, through the vast forests and the lava fields. They search for a quiet land, for a refuge, for peace. After leaving the mountains, the landscape changes and they reach an enormous wasteland with few people in it. It seems like a place that is here by chance. The lands reach to the horizon: a completely lifeless horizon. The sky is grey and heavy, as if under a dark veil, full of menace. Three days’ ride to the north of the village, there is a place at the edge of the wasteland; it is an island of lush greenery. The people who are there say that it’s an oasis. For three long days they camp there until the people from the west send an escort of soldiers to let them in, as if this oasis represents a danger that must be prevented. For three long days they are housed by kind strangers, greeted with gifts, offered meat and fruits. But towards evening a band of horsemen travels to the camp at the edge of the wasteland and intercepts the escort. Their attention turns towards the people from the west, whose utopia is about to get in touch with the enemy of civilisation.
The last night at the oasis is unbearably tense. The faces are hard and dark. The foreign soldiers have a Tatar accent. A few of the people from the
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